Pelfrey’s Road ERA Is Scary

Last night’s win sets up back to back House Money Games. A great position to be in for the Amazin’s.

That being said, I’m a tad bit concerned with tonight’s game.  The combination of Mike Pelfrey’s road ERA (8.58) and the Brewers potent offense is scary quite frankly.

However, I am going to take a glass is half full approach tonight.  I am convincing myself that Big Pelf is going to look at tonight’s start as an opportunity to climb the Midwestropolitan Playoff Rotation depth chart.  As of Monday, I have him as the odd man out if the playoffs were to start today.

Another thing in Pelfrey’s favor is that it is amazingly humid in the Midwest right now.  This bodes well for his fingers.  He won’t have to lick them as often as usual.

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Truly A House Money Game

Prior to the start of this current series, I expected the Mets to drop two of three in Colorado.  For proof, check out the Midwestropolitan Facebook Page (shameless plug, give it a like).

Last night’s strange win sets up the mother of all House Money Games.  I say this based on what today’s lineup is going to look like if this indication from Terry Collins  stays true to form:

“Collins indicated his starting lineup would have Daniel Murphy at first base, Justin Turner at third base and likely Willie Harris at second base over Chin-lung Hu.“

Combine this motley crew and the fact that they are facing Ubaldo Jimenez, and we have ourselves a slim chance to win.  The positive to this particular thought is that a win would be a pretty decent momentum builder.

Stranger things have happened I guess.

Update:

By now you may have heard that this game has been postponed due to rain.  Obviously, this changes the Mets chances based on their lineup tomorrow.

I’m glad I spent hours slaving over this literary masterpiece.  Thanks a lot Mother Nature.

A New Statistic For A Game Lacking Them

The reality of the current situation is that none of us should have expected great things in 2011.  Hell, even the front  office warned us this would be a transitional season.  They didn’t even try to talk a big game in terms of what we  should expect.

All I recall is something like, “We feel it is possible to contend for the playoffs” which really translates to “We have no chance in hell for a successful 2011 unless we catch a number of breaks.”

So, instead of becoming a small, teeny, little man and writing nothing but “Mets Suck” posts all the time I decided  to do something a little more productive and fun with my time.  What better way than to invent another set of  statistics for a game that has so very little numeric data to evaluate.

I already informed you that I typically view baseball seasons one series at a time, and I am positive you have been following the series records we have posted on this website on a regular basis.

It has always been interesting to me how different each series feels after the first game. Going into every series I have, what I feel, is a realistic expectation on how the Mets should perform.  This expectation is based on several factors such as home vs away, talent, and how each team has been playing heading into the series.

In order to remain realistic, I very rarely expect a sweep or to be swept.  Frankly, getting swept should never happen.  Kind of like picking your nose in your car while sitting in traffic.

As each series progresses the Mets find themselves in a couple of different scenarios.

1.  Having to win a game (sometimes two) to meet my expectations.

2.  Finding themselves in position to win one or two to exceed my expectations.

DON’T DISAPPOINT GAMES

Games in which the Mets find themselves fighting for their life to keep me happy have been creatively called “Don’t Disappoint Games” (DDGs).

Let’s use the Colorado series as an example, shall we?

Going into the series I felt Colorado certainly had a better team and were playing better baseball.  However, the Mets were at home so I felt it was reasonable to expect them to split the series.

As you all know, the Mets dropped the first two games of the four game set putting them in a very perilous position.  They faced not one, but two DDGs.  0-2 in DDGs…ugh.

HOUSE MONEY GAMES

Derived from the popular gambling pharase, “you are playing with house money”, House Money Games (HMGs) are games in which the Mets have an opportunity to exceed series expectations.  Take the Florida series for example.

Based on the fact that the Mets were on the road within the division I felt it was realistic that they would lose that series.  They split the first two games of the series setting up a HMG in the rubber match.  By winning that game they started off with 1-0 HMG record.

CATCHING UP

Let’s take a look at how the Mets have faired in Don’t Disapoint and House Money Games this year.  We’ll go series by series.

Florida:  See above.  1-0 HMG

Philadelphia:  Remember the Philly series?  Remember the Mets winning the first game of the series and everyone claiming that they were never going to lose again?  That win put them in a great position because I expected them to lose the series.

They now had two House Money Games in front of them.  You remember what happened, unless you have forced it from your subconscious.  1-2 HMG

Washington:  Based on the fact the Mets were at home I expected a series win against the Nats.  They split the first two games setting up the first Don’t disappoint Game of the season.  0-1 DDG

Colorado:  See above.  0-3 DDG

Using these lovely new statistics, you can see why Mets fans are getting pretty whiny.

Maybe none of this makes sense to some of you.  That is unfortunate because it makes sense in my warped little mind so I am going to roll with it.

ATLANTA EXPECTATIONS

Now the Mets travel to Atlanta with a huge black cloud of disappointment hovering over their heads.  It is still early, so I expect the Mets to scrap out at least one win this weekend even though they are playing in Atlanta, a place that has not been too friendly over the years.

Let’s see what happens.