How Did I Do?

At the beginning of the season I shared a few things to look for during the 2012 season.  Let’s see how accurate I was.

….I have absolutely no irrational beliefs that the Mets will finish better than fourth place in their division this season.

My expectation for 2012 is to leisurely enjoy each game with the hopes that I begin to pick up on signs that the Mets will contend next year, or more realistically in 2014. 

Couldn’t be more spot on in terms of my beliefs on how the team would fare overall.  Fourth place it was.  I am glad I went back and re-read this though.  It reminded me that 2014 is a more realistic year for the Mets to compete.  Not sure I’ll have the patience to wait another year however.

Ruben Tejada will play a solid, consistent shortstop defensively, and hit .270.

Congrats to Ruben.  No one can argue he was a solid, consistent shortstop in 2012.  He exceeded my expectations with a .289 average.

Daniel Murphy will boast a plus .300 batting average but will struggle at second base.  However, it will still be a better showing than Luis Castillo’s efforts as a Met.

I’m man enough to admit that I was wrong on two out of three accounts here.  I handed myself a gimme with the Castillo measurement, but Murph did not quite make it to .300 as he finished with a .291 average.  I am cool with the fact that Murphy did not struggle at second base and even seemed to get more comfortable as the season went on.

Lucas Duda and Ike Davis will both blast 20 plus homers, maybe even 30 plus.

Thanks Ike.  Lucas, I will never forgive you for making me look like a fool.  You are dead to me.

David Wright will hit .280 and his strike outs will decrease, but will still rely on the submarine heaves across the diamond that will lead to a number of throwing errors.

Looks like I am once again batting .333 on this one.  Great if I was a hitter, not so great in terms of “predictions”.  I’m glad #5 had the bounce back season he did.

Johan Santana will remain relatively healthy and pick up 12 wins.

Not very close on this one.  Maybe in 2013?

Mr. Met will serve some jail time after beating Billy The Marlin’s ass after Billy insinuates that he has always been Jose Reyes’ favorite mascot. Who names a fish Billy anyway?

Fortunately for Mr. Met, the Marlins imploded this year causing Billy the Marlin to drink heavily.  An unidentified source tells me he has checked in to a very expensive rehab center to help him stop binging on Mojitos and Pina Coladas.

Mike Pelfrey will have his last season as a starter as a New York Met.

This wasn’t a stretch going into the season.  I’m not thrilled that this came to fruition due to injury.

Tim Byrdak will be effective for a second consecutive season, largely due to the fact that he graced the first ever cover of the Midwestropolitan.com Facebook page.

Well, he was effective before he got hurt.  You’re not going to hold the cover choice against me Tim, are you?

The Mets will still be looking for a true closer, even though Bobby Parnell will have a better showing this season.

Yup and yup.  The problem here is the Mets won’t spend a lot of cash for a proven closer so they will still be searching in 2013.  As much as I like typing his name, Franc Franc is clearly not the answer.

Andres Torres will be hurt much of the season.  After all, dude is 34 years old, that’s ancient for a lead off man playing CF.

He wasn’t hurt, but he was awful.  I was particularly disappointed in his base running.

I don’t even want to discuss Jason Bay.  I am just going to hope like heck he has a good season.  He sure seems like a swell guy and I’d hate to see him have another tough go of it.

Still don’t want to discuss J. Bay.  Still seems like a swell guy.

On to 2013 boys.

Harvey vs Pelfrey

Earlier this morning I shared the following thought on our Facebook Page:

“I’m most impressed with the jams he pitched out of. Terry Collins used the word “composure”. Hopefully, that is a permanent Harvey trait.”

I was particularly talking about the 3rd inning here.  Yesterday, I talked about confidence.  If the 3rd inning is indicative of what we will see with Harvey I think he is going to be A-Okay.

During the 3rd, Harvey got into a bit of a pickle and had to face Josh Kubel, a left-handed hitter leading the league in RBIs.  He promptly sat him down and then got to a full count against Paul Goldschmidt, with the tying runs in scoring position.  Impressively he has the nerve to throw a curveball, followed by an up and in fastball that was fouled off, finally getting the backwards K with a filthy 97 mph fastball on the outside corner.

At the beginning of the game, Gary Cohen brought up the fact that Mike Pelfrey was the last Mets 1st round pick to make his major league debut as a starting pitcher.  The Mets won that game 17-1.  A word of caution perhaps from big Gar.

After the first start there is one glaring difference between Pelfrey and Harvey.  No, not the fact that Pelfrey licks his hands uncomfortably often.   Harvey’s velocity combined with his breaking pitches gives him the opportunity to get hitters out in critical situations.  Clearly documented above.

Obviously, it is way too early to anoint #33 as the next Tom Seaver.  My guess is that he might struggle a bit early with high pitch counts because he will try to pitch to the strikeout rather than contact.

Regardless, I liked what I saw last night.

Harvey’s Mental Game

Over the last few weeks there has been much debate about whether or not Matt Harvey is ready for the big leagues.  Tonight we get to find out.

I have to admit I’m concerned.  In my mind I had Harvey and Wheeler starting off the 2013 season in the rotation, having all of 2012 in the minors to fine tune their game.  I’m not going to flat-out say it is the wrong decision to hand Harvey the ball tonight.  Let’s face it, something’s got to change and maybe he’ll give this squad a boost.

In many ways, baseball is a numbers game.  My problem is I am way too lazy to analyze stats to come up with an opinion about a player’s readiness.  Particularly in the pitching area.

Instead, I focus on their confidence because on many occasions it is very easy to decipher.  All you have to do is look at a guy’s face or pay attention to his body language.

Read the following names of Mets’ pitchers and picture the look on their face when they were on the mound only.  Forget everything you know about them.  Forget about how many games they have won, their career ERA, how fast they throw, how tall they are, or how nasty their breaking pitches are.  Focus on only how they carry themselves.

Mike Pelfrey, Aaron Heilman, Frank Francisco, Manny Acosta, Armando Benitez, Jeremy Heffner, Chris Schwinden, Bobby Parnell

This group doesn’t exactly ooze machismo does it?

Now try the same exercise with the following list.

Tom Seaver, Billy Wagner, Dwight Gooden (first few years before the coke completely took over), R.A. Dickey, Johan Santana, David Cone, John Franco

You feel a little more confident in their ability to get a guy out don’t you?  Or better yet, their ability to pitch out of a jam.

Can a pitcher’s outward confidence change?  Sure.  But I argue it’s rare.

Tonight, pay attention to how Harvey reacts when someone drills one of his pitches, or when he doesn’t get a call.  It’s all about the mental game.  Right now, I’m not sure even his own catcher knows. Check out this quote from Rob Johnson

“I think mentally he’s strong enough to be there. It’s just going to be a matter of if he can compose his emotions.”

Maybe I’m being nit picky here but isn’t composing your emotions part of being mentally strong?  In my book it’s the most important thing.

The cool thing about all of this is we’ll start to figure it out with Matt Harvey tonight.

Be Careful What You Wish For

On Wednesday I went on record to say that Chris Schwinden is not the answer in replacing the injured Mike Pelfrey.  I know, pretty ballsy call on my part.

I really didn’t have a preference in terms of who would get the shot.  I guess if you put a gun to my head I would have liked to see Jeremy Heffner get a nod.  This was based solely on the fact that he seemed to be effective in the handful of innings he worked a few games back.  Not much to base an opinion on so I’m not too broken up that he isn’t getting the call.

Miguel Batista is a logical choice based on the fact he has always been pegged as the spot start, long relief guy.  However, now that D.J. Carrasco is on his way back I really don’t feel too comfortable knowing that Batista, Manny Acosta, and D.J. Carrasco are all available to pitch.  The percentages show that we are going to have to see at least one of them much more frequently.

Chris Capuano’s 4-0, 18 2/3 scoreless inning streak, and 2.21 ERA looks pretty good right now.

Shit.

Well, Here We Are

The purpose of this post is not to drop mind-blowing insight or tinkle in your pants it’s so funny humor per the norm.  To be completely honest, it is solely to document my thoughts heading into the beginning of the 2012 season.  My apologies to those of you that came here to have your minds blown or to tinkle in your pants.

Let it be known that on the eve of Opening Day, I feel pretty calm.  I am excited that baseball is upon us, but I have absolutely no irrational beliefs that the Mets will finish better than fourth place in their division this season.

The cool thing about this is that anything better will be a sign of over achievement which takes a lot of angst out of the equation.  Low expectations equal low stress.

My expectation for 2012 is to leisurely enjoy each game with the hopes that I begin to pick up on signs that the Mets will contend next year, or more realistically in 2014.  With that in mind, here are some things I feel could happen this year:

• Ruben Tejada will play a solid, consistent shortstop defensively, and hit .270.
• Daniel Murphy will boast a plus .300 batting average but will struggle at second base.  However, it will still be a better showing than Luis Castillo’s efforts as a Met.
• Lucas Duda and Ike Davis will both blast 20 plus homers, maybe even 30 plus.
• David Wright will hit .280 and his strike outs will decrease, but will still rely on the submarine heaves across the diamond that will lead to a number of throwing errors.
• Johan Santana will remain relatively healthy and pick up 12 wins.
• Mr. Met will serve some jail time after beating Billy The Marlin’s ass after Billy insinuates that he has always been Jose Reyes’ favorite mascot. Who names a fish Billy anyway?
• Mike Pelfrey will have his last season as a starter as a New York Met.
• Tim Byrdak will be effective for a second consecutive season, largely due to the fact that he graced the first ever cover of the Midwestropolitan.com Facebook page.
• The Mets will still be looking for a true closer, even though Bobby Parnell will have a better showing this season.
• Andres Torres will be hurt much of the season.  After all, dude is 34 years old, that’s ancient for a lead off man playing CF.
• I don’t even want to discuss Jason Bay.  I am just going to hope like heck he has a good season.  He sure seems like a swell guy and I’d hate to see him have another tough go of it.

Pitching, Pitching, & More Pitching

Jose Reyes will dominate the discussion in terms of 2012 roster decisions for the New York Mets.  He’s one of the most exciting players in all of baseball, so it’s easy to understand.

The problem is, the shortstop position should not be the focus of the organization.  The starting rotation should be.  The Mets could re-sign Jose Reyes, successfully convert Ike Davis into a gold glove center fielder, sign Prince Fielder and they still wouldn’t make the playoffs with their current rotation.  I may be exaggerating a tad, but you get the point.

Besides, their offense isn’t the problem.  The Mets were sixth in the National League in runs scored (718).  That’s five runs better than the Phillies.

The 2011 Mets’ starting rotation sported a woeful 4.11 ERA.  There were nine teams better in the National League in this particular area, including all four playoff teams.  As it stands, the rotation has no legitimate ace, a number two or three guy in Johan (due to injury and age), a number three guy in Dickey, and a collection of #4 or #5 guys at best.

Mike Pelfrey (career 4.40 ERA) and Chris Capuano (career 4.39 ERA) need to go.  To put it simply, they are not part of the solution.

Jon Niese and Dillon Gee still have yet to prove they are worth holding on to, but I wouldn’t be upset if the Mets want to give them both another chance in 2012.  Part of me thinks Niese doesn’t have the stamina or strength to make it as a starter and the Mets need to consider moving him to the bullpen. Right now, his 4.20 ERA in 2010 and his 4.40 ERA this season place him alongside Big Pelf and Cap.

Back to Jose for a second. For those of you new to Midwestropolitan (shame on you for not joining us earlier), I am not saying I don’t want Jose to remain a Met.  As a fan, I hold on to hope they can figure out a way to re-sign him and fix the rotation at the same time.  The realist in me knows that is a tall order.

The bottom line is we should keep an eye on what the front office does with the rotation.  It will tell us a lot about whether or not they truly believe they can contend in 2012.  If there isn’t much turnover, it means they are willing to sacrifice 2012 to give Jenrry Mejia, Matt Harvey, and Zack Wheeler time to develop with hopes that any and all of them form a strong young core in 2013.

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Some Advice For Big Pelf

Mike,

Don’t listen to the media.  When it comes down to it, they are a fickle bunch.

I’ve read all of the hullabaloo about trading you and how you suck.  Blah, blah, blabity blah blah.  This is the same group that was anointing you as the new Ace last season as you went 10-2 during the first half.  Hell, even big bad ESPN was on your jock.

The truth of the matter is, you are a good pitcher,  not a great one. Maybe all of the ace talk screwed you up  a little bit.  Don’t let it get to you big guy.  The vast majority of MLB pitchers never have their name associated with the top spot.

Forget about it.  Stop worrying about being great or perfect.  It is clear that isn’t your destiny.  I am perfectly happy with you being a number three guy in the rotation.  Its not your fault Johan has been hurt forcing the media to appoint his replacement.

Some fans have been hard on you too.  The intelligent ones know you clearly pitch better at home.  10-3 versus 5-6 last year pretty much sums it up.

Maybe once you let this nonsense go, you can keep the Mets within striking distance on the road.  That is all this Midwestropolitan expects from you.